Comments on: Google Predicts Obama for President

By: Russ

Russ — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 16:48:42 +0000

First, I should apologize for the way my last post came out as it was intended as a direct response to the comment about how Google trends being a great predictor for political campaigns because it worked well for American Idol. I get a little riled over political campaigns, but my point was, audience matters. American Idol’s audience has a high percentage of internet users, so Google trends works well for predicting results. Political campaigns are extremely different. Take one trip to the voting booth, and you’ll see what I mean. Lots of old people. Lots of older people, and not a lot of young, high volume internet users.

By: Dave Bascom

Dave Bascom — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 16:08:44 +0000

Obviously people search a candidate’s name for a variety of reasons, so it seems unlikely to be an accurate predictor of election results. The premise is that the more popular candidate will be searched on more often and will also get more votes. Even from our analysis back in the primaries, that didn’t always hold true.

Even though the race is getting close now, it seems Obama is much more popular than McCain (at least on the web). For another example, check out the Google Trends report comparing the two candidates’ main websites: http://trends.google.com/websites?q=johnmccain.com%2Cbarackobama.com&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0

By: Russ

Russ — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 15:34:23 +0000

Google trends is a terrible predictor of elections because it doesn’t even remotely represent people who actually vote. The media also tends to lean toward liberal in news coverage as well. For example, Hillary Clinton consistently had more mentions in Google news than any other candidate, but where is she now?

If you look at at the actual polling, you’ll find the real nature of the election right now is nothing what the media presents it to be. John McCain and Barack Obama are in a dead heat. McCain crushes Obama in polls where people are asked who is the most prepared, and Obama does the same when they are asked about healthcare. Do not be surprised if McCain wins.

By: David Scoville

David Scoville — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 14:22:25 +0000

Google Trends is amazingly accurate. I was impressed with its prediction of American Idol, David Cooke. However, look at this data from the 2004 election, between Bush and Kerry: http://tinyurl.com/5fkz9r

McCain still may have a chance.

By: Julio

Julio — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 17:53:53 +0000

I dont vote, and If I did I dang sure wouldnt be for Obama, But I have searched his name just because Im curious to see if America is stupid enough to want him as president. I dont think that our votes really make a crap. If they want Obama to be president he will be president. politicians are like car salesmen, they tell you what you want to hear and then a couple of months down the road you find out you got a lemon.

By: Rand

Rand — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 15:46:22 +0000

Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Part of the searches could be attributed to the fact that no one really knows anything about Obama. The revelations last week that Obama has spent 20 years as a member of a church whose minister goes on anti-white/anti-American tirades may play well to the far left of the democratic party, but it will not play well with blue collar democrats or independents.

The American voters are independent minded and there is plenty of time for something to come up that pushes a few percentage points in either direction. According to all of the polls, that is all it would take to swing the election.

By: Jacques Snyman

Jacques Snyman — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 05:55:07 +0000

Interesting application of Google trends…the points raised against the figures reflecting in the polls are very relevant, however it does indicate that the majority of political searches are about Obama, which does indicate a keen public interest in his campaign. Let’s face it folks, there is either the 1st woman president, or the 1st black man as president coming. History is in the making here.

By: not much hope

not much hope — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 06:06:41 +0000

Does anyone else think the 2nd Bush election was rigged? Especially in FL? Things like that don’t give me much hope for any election in the future…

By: Garth

Garth — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 05:20:50 +0000

Interesting what can be supported, maybe not concluded, from data we didn’t have a decade ago.

By: Ross

Ross — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 06:39:57 +0000

I think also because Barack Obama is a virtual unknown people are googling him to find out more about him. That doesnt mean that they would vote for him. I may well mean that they are afraid of voting for him….